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Thinking

Long-form notes for reading the direction of technical change.

Thinking is a professional column: fewer quick posts, more durable essays. It keeps observations, source trails, assumptions, and evolving viewpoints visible over time.

Essays

30 essays shown
Thinking66 min read

NVLink's Moat: The Battle for Open Scale-Up Interconnect

In a 72-GPU MoE model, every token-routing all-to-all step waits on the slowest hop. Microsecond latency is catastrophic; sub-microsecond is the cure. As clusters scale from 8 to…

AI 基础设施
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Thinking53 min read

Routing and Congestion in 100K-GPU Clusters: When Physics Pushes Back

A 100K-GPU cluster network isn't just a bigger network — it's a network governed by different physics. This article systematically breaks down eight core challenges in routing…

AI 基础设施
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Thinking48 min read

AMD Helios Supernode Teardown: Can Ethernet-Based Scale-Up Crack NVLink's Moat?

AMD's Helios rack-scale AI platform is the first credible challenge to NVIDIA at the supernode scale. 72 MI455X GPUs, UALoE Ethernet scale-up, a 2 GW Anthropic deal, and a deep…

AMD
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Thinking49 min read

MCP Protocol 2026-07-28 Major Revision: From Tool-Calling Protocol to Infrastructure

On July 28, 2026, MCP published its largest specification revision since inception. Statelessness, MRTR, Tasks extension, and formal extension system collectively push MCP from a…

MCP
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Thinking48 min read

Server Sizing for EDA Engineers: A Hardware Guide That 80% of Buyers Get Wrong

Specing an EDA cluster with an AI-cluster mindset is the most common mistake in EDA infrastructure planning. This guide derives CPU, memory, storage, and network requirements…

EDA
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Thinking19 min read

The Open-Weight War: When the People Selling Walls Want to Close Open Source

Kimi K3 did not just ignite a model performance race—it split the AI industry.

AI policy
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Thinking41 min read

When Agents Enter the Organization: How Enterprise Context OS Reconstructs Enterprise Information Infrastructure

Context is the third enterprise resource after compute and data. Enterprise Context OS = Context Store + Context Compiler + Agent Runtime.

Context OS
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Thinking18 min read

When Agents Enter the Organization: How Context Becomes Enterprise Infrastructure's Next Frontier

As agent populations surge, context becomes the new bottleneck resource. Starting from the read-write cost inversion, the article derives the cognitive object model, Cognitive…

AI
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Thinking67 min read

The Future of AI Native Organizations: A Topology Rewrite

Starting from the NBER paradox, this article defines AI Native organizations and dissects their operating model across seven dimensions: collaboration, communication,…

AI Native
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Thinking22 min read

When Alphabet Burns $5.9B in a Quarter: The AI Infrastructure Capex Paradox

Google Cloud revenue grew 82% YoY. Alphabet total revenue grew 24%. Then free cash flow turned negative $5.9B. AI infrastructure capex is growing faster than Alphabet cash…

AI
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Thinking45 min read

WAIC Revisited: Engineering Choices, Technology Delivery, and Enterprise Decisions in Supernode Design

Whether an enterprise should purchase a supernode depends on four things: whether your primary model is limited by communication bottlenecks, whether your data center can support…

AI
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Thinking52 min read

When AI Agents Reinvent the File System: From "Everything Is a File" to "Everything Is Context"

Agent workloads are rewriting the foundational assumptions of storage architecture. From POSIX file systems to cognitive file systems, from KV Cache to Agent state management…

AI infrastructure
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Thinking90 min read

WAIC 2026 Field Notes: Year One of Supernodes, Training on Domestic Silicon, and the Third Path

A live examination of China's AI industry after three years of gear-shifting. Four deep dives: supernode economics, domestic chip training crossing 0-to-1, Oriental Chip's third…

AI
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Thinking23 min read

When Storage Becomes Agent Working Memory: Three Years of FMS Trend Migration and Technology Roadmap

Agent storage paradigm analysis: KV Cache cross-tiering, Agent random IOPS pressure, four-stage evolution framework. FMS 2026 has validated core predictions; framework revised.

存储
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Thinking26 min read

Scale-Across: AI Clusters Are Growing Across Cities

GPU clusters have already exceeded the power supply limits of a single site. The next step—not building bigger, but connecting farther.

AI
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Thinking27 min read

Silicon Photonics' Three-Year Reshuffle: Component Bottlenecks, Route Divergence, and Supply-Demand Variables

AI data center optical interconnect is transitioning from pluggable to NPO/CPO. Who's at the bottleneck, where are the opportunities, and where are the supply gaps?

AI
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Thinking68 min read

When the Best Earnings Meet the Worst Crash: A Structural Anatomy of the Semiconductor Selloff and Memory Market Forecasts

SK Hynix plunged 15.37% in its worst single-day drop ever, erasing $1.3 trillion from chip stocks. A five-dimensional structural anatomy of the semiconductor crash—ADR arbitrage,…

semiconductor
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Thinking22 min read

Decoding Anthropic's Loop Engineering Guide: Four Loop Types and Their Boundaries

Full analysis of Anthropic's official Loop Engineering guide. Four loop types, SKILL.md verification encoding, seven token levers, four code quality principles.

AI
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Thinking86 min read

KV Cache as Infrastructure: When the Cache Layer Decouples from the Inference Engine

Reasoning system design from workload physics. Six cluster challenges, post-CXL hardware reasoning, AFD bandwidth economics, KV Memory Node architecture.

AI
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Thinking42 min read

The Productization of Agent Toolchain: When Loop Engineering's Six Building Blocks Become a Market

From Claude Cowork to ChatGPT Work, from MCP to Agent Gateway, loop engineering's six building blocks are crystallizing into a five-layer product market.

AI
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Thinking34 min read

GPU Is Becoming Oil: When Compute Turns from Scarce Resource to Tradable Commodity

Ornn launched a GPU spot market, Nvidia lost $1T in market cap in two months, and Micron tripled. Compute is turning from scarce resource to tradable commodity.

AI
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Thinking66 min read

When the Loop Becomes the Unit of Engineering: The Paradigm Shift from Prompt to Context to Loop

Boris Cherny said he no longer writes prompts—he writes loops. As Anthropic and OpenAI converge on the same loop primitives, loop engineering is moving from concept to…

AI
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Thinking52 min read

Inside Microsoft's ResearchStudio: Can AI Automate the First and Last Mile of Research?

An engineering manifesto on skill engineering, a deep teardown of Microsoft Research's AI research system, and an epistemological question about how expertise is transmitted.

AI
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Thinking56 min read

The Chinese Market Panorama Under Gartner's $2.6T AI Spending Framework

Gartner May 2026: global AI spending $2.59T across eight layers. China holds 15-20% but with 70%+ in infrastructure vs 54% global average. A four-dimensional breakdown—compute,…

AI
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Thinking49 min read

The $2.60 Trillion AI Infrastructure Stack: A Layer-by-Layer Breakdown of Gartner's 8 Segments

Gartner forecasts $2.60 trillion in global AI spending for 2026, with infrastructure capturing 55%. This article walks through every segment: definitions, scale, leading players,…

AI
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Thinking22 min read

When the AI Bill Catches the Payroll: The Token Cost Paradox

Anthropic spends 4x payroll on compute. Uber burned its AI budget in four months. The cheaper tokens get, the more enterprises spend. The e-commerce disruption of retail is…

AI
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Thinking59 min read

Where the 100x Comes From: Decomposing the Three-Layer Multiplication of AI Hardware-Software Co-Design

SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel's 100x framework: AI efficiency gains come from the multiplicative effect of co-designing model architecture, kernel optimization, and chip design.

AI
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Thinking19 min read

The Infrastructure Generation Gap: AI Data Centers at ODCC 2026

In eight years, power density has increased 15-25x. Six technology directions—power, cooling, UEC, scale-up, in-network computing, token economics, NPO—coupled and evolving…

ODCC
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Thinking73 min read

τ Scaling V2: From Theoretical Framework to Production Evidence

Deep read of He Tingbo's τ scaling paper V2. 381 mass-produced chips, Kirin 2026 LogicFolding measured data, three-layer τ reduction AI architecture (UB + Hi-ONE + 3D Folding)…

semiconductor
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Thinking57 min read

$3.1 Billion for Data Infrastructure, Not AI: Schneider’s Acquisition of Cognite and the Value Thesis for Vertical AI

Schneider spent $3.1B not on an AI model but on data infrastructure. This article examines what holds lasting value in vertical AI scenarios.

AI
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